Prognostic Accuracy of the Modified CHA2DS2-VASc Score in COVID-19 Patients Admitted to the Emergency Department Due to Clinical Worsening

Beatriz Valente Silva, Rui Plácido, Cláudia Jorge, Carlos Mendonça, Maria Luísa Urbano, Tiago Rodrigues, Joana Brito, Pedro Alves da Silva, Joana Rigueira, Fausto J. Pinto


Introduction: Risk factors comprising the CHA2DS2VASc score are recognized as risk factors for venous thromboembolism and mortality in COVID-19 patients. A modified CHA2DS2VASc score (M-CHA2D2VASc), developed by changing gender criteria from female to male, has been proposed to predict in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of M-CHA2D2VASc for adverse clinical outcomes and short-term mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to the Emergency Department.
Material and Methods: Retrospective study of patients admitted to the ED who underwent computed tomography pulmonary angiography due to suspected pulmonary embolism or clinical worsening. Patients were stratified into three M-CHA2DS2-VASc risk-categories: low (0 - 1 points), intermediate (2 - 3 points) and high-risk (≥ 4 points).
Results: We included 300 patients (median age 71 years, 59% male). The overall mortality was 27%. The M-CHA2DS2-VASc score was higher in non-survivors compared to survivors [4 (IQR:3 - 5) vs 2 (IQR: 1 - 4), respectively, p < 0.001). The M-CHA2DS2-VASc score was identified as an independent predictor of mortality in a multivariable logistic regression model (OR 1.406, p = 0.007). The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the M-CHA2DS2-VASc score was associated with short-term mortality (log-rank test < 0.001), regardless of hospitalization (log-rank test p < 0.001 and p = 0.007, respectively). The survival proportion was 92%, 80% and 63% in the lower, intermediate, and higher risk-groups. As for the risk-categories, no difference was found in pulmonary embolism, Intensive Care Unit admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation.
Discussion: This is the first study to validate M-CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of short-term mortality in patients admitted to the Emergency Department.
Conclusion: The M-CHA2DS2-VASC score might be useful for prompt risk-stratification in COVID-19 patients during admission to the Emergency Department.


COVID-19; Mortality; Risk Assessment; SARS-CoV-2

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