Prognostic factors and survival model for decompensated hepatic cirrhosis.

L C Ribeiro, A Saragoça, M C de Moura


A group of 207 consecutive patients admitted for decompensated liver cirrhosis of different etiologies (alcoholic, HBsAg-associated and cryptogenic), was studied in order to assess the independent long-term (up to 5 years) prognostic value of 13 clinical, biochemical and etiological factors. These were analyzed by the Cox Regression Model using a step-wise backward procedure. The final model included bilirubin (p = 0.003), HBsAg (p = 0.006), encephalopathy (p = 0.010) and a factor comprising urea and albumin (p less than 0.001). The model was validated by a split-sample testing technique and may be used to predict survival in decompensated cirrhosis. A comparison with Child-Pugh's score in terms of survival prediction was carried out and was favorable to our model. We conclude that this model can be useful for predicting short and long-term survival in the three most common types of liver cirrhosis and that the additional overhead to calculate it seems justified in view of the large availability of microcomputers where simple programs can be run to perform this task and draw the predicted survival curves.

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