Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal

Paulo Jorge Nogueira; Miguel de Araújo Nobre; Paulo Jorge Nicola; Cristina Furtado; António Vaz Carneiro

doi:10.20344/amp.13928

Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal

Authors

Paulo Jorge Nogueira Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Laboratory of Biomathematics. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8316-5035
Miguel de Araújo Nobre Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Stomatological University Clinic. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon.
Paulo Jorge Nicola Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon.
Cristina Furtado Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Environmental Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Epidemiology Unit. Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge. Lisbon.
António Vaz Carneiro Institute of Preventive Medicine and Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Institute for Evidence Based Health. Faculty of Medicine. University of Lisbon. Lisbon. Cochrane Portugal. Lisbon.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.20344/amp.13928

Keywords:

Coronavirus, Coronavirus Infections, Disease Outbreaks, Mortality, Pandemics, Portugal

Abstract

Introduction: Portugal is experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. All-causes mortality in Portugal increased during March and April 2020 compared to previous years, but this increase is not explained by COVID-19 reported deaths. The aim of this study was to analyze and consider other criteria for estimating excessive all-causes mortality during the early COVID-19pandemic period.
Material and Methods: Public data was used to estimate excess mortality by age and region between March 1 and April 22, proposing baselines adjusted for the lockdown period.
Results: Despite the inherent uncertainty, it is safe to assume an observed excess mortality of 2400 to 4000 deaths. Excess mortality was associated with older age groups (over age 65).
Discussion: The data suggests a ternary explanation for early excess mortality: COVID-19, non-identified COVID-19 and decrease in access to healthcare. The estimates have implications in terms of communication of non-pharmaceutical actions, for research, and to healthcare professionals.
Conclusion: The excess mortality occurred between March 1 and April 22 was 3.5- to 5-fold higher than what can be explained by the official COVID-19 deaths.

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Published

2020-06-01

How to Cite

Nogueira PJ, de Araújo Nobre M, Nicola PJ, Furtado C, Vaz Carneiro A. Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal. Acta Med Port [Internet]. 2020 Jun. 1 [cited 2024 Dec. 22];33(6):376-83. Available from: https://actamedicaportuguesa.com/revista/index.php/amp/article/view/13928

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Issue

Vol. 33 No. 6 (2020): June

Section

Original

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